Share 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude oil stocks of 282.6 million barrels for the week ending October 23, 2026, putting the reserve 2.6 million barrels above the 280 million-barrel threshold in an October 30 contract. Polymarket’s contract on whether the reserve will reach that threshold showed a market-implied chance of 9% as of Thursday morning ET.
Key takeaways
- EIA reported SPR stocks of 282.6 million barrels for the week ending October 23, above the 280 million-barrel cutoff.
- Reuters reported an authorized emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels, less than the gap to the threshold.
- This week’s trading volume was $1,564, against a monthly weekly average of $4,974.
- The contract requires a qualifying EIA publication by October 30, 2026.
The drawdown contract has retreated from its October high
The contract asks whether EIA will publish weekly Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude oil ending stocks at or below 280 million barrels by October 30, 2026. It measures the strategic reserve, not broader U.S. commercial crude inventories. It also requires publication by the deadline, rather than simply an announced release of oil.
The current price follows a sharp reversal within the month. The contract reached its 30-day high of 84% on Oct. 12. Its largest move inside 48 hours was a 36-point fall between Oct. 16 and Oct. 18. It subsequently reached its 30-day low of 9% on Oct. 28, leaving the latest price close to that low.
Trading was light relative to its recent baseline: this week’s volume was $1,564, compared with a weekly average of $4,974 over the past month, a ratio of 0.3. That gives context to the price movement but does not establish why participants changed their estimates.
The lower-threshold contracts show how traders price deeper drawdowns. Polymarket’s 270 million-barrel contract was priced at 5% as of Thursday morning ET. Its 260 million-barrel contract also stood at 3% as of Thursday morning ET, while the 250 million-barrel contract showed 1% as of Thursday morning ET. The two middle thresholds carry matching prices despite asking for different reserve levels; the deepest drawdown carries the lowest price.
The authorized exchange is smaller than the remaining gap
Reuters reported that the Energy Department authorized an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve on October 23. That maximum is smaller than the gap between the latest published reserve reading and the contract’s cutoff. Authorization alone is not the weekly ending-stocks figure used for resolution.
EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook shows SPR net withdrawals of 0.44 million barrels for 2026 Q4. That figure is also smaller than the gap, but it measures net withdrawals across a quarter—not whether a weekly stock reading crosses the contract’s line before October 30. It therefore provides context rather than a directly comparable estimate of the contract’s outcome.
October 30 turns on a published reserve reading
For the contract to resolve Yes, EIA must publish a qualifying weekly SPR figure by October 30, 2026. A reading at or below the cutoff would satisfy the rule; readings that remain above it would not.
Without a qualifying publication by the deadline, the contract resolves the other way. The available reporting does not establish whether another weekly SPR report is scheduled before then. The next relevant evidence is therefore an EIA publication that meets both the reserve-level test and the publication deadline—not an authorization to move oil.
—
Sources: As reported by U.S. Energy Information Administration and Reuters.
Market data: Polymarket, midpoint of the best bid and ask as of 3:45 p.m. UTC on Oct. 29, 2026.
Prediction market prices reflect the collective estimates of traders, not certainties. This is not financial or betting advice.
