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U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose above $100 a barrel, with Reuters reporting a price of $103.09 on Oct. 18 amid thin trading.
On Polymarket, the October 2026 contract asking whether WTI will touch $100 had a market-implied chance of 89% at 6:16 p.m. UTC on Oct. 19. That compares with Polymarket’s market-implied chance of 80% at 10:11 p.m. UTC on Oct. 18 and 36% on Oct. 11 for the same $100 contract.
The higher threshold was priced differently: Polymarket’s separate contract asking whether WTI will reach $105 in October had a market-implied chance of 43% at 6:16 p.m. UTC on Oct. 19. These prices are estimates for distinct contracts, not confirmation that either has resolved.
The physical-market reports differ. CNBC described November WTI futures closing at $97.97 on Oct. 15 after gaining $2.88; Reuters also reported a $97.97 settlement and a $2.88 gain, but gave a different percentage change. CNBC reported a $101.41 settlement on Oct. 16 and repeated that figure in reporting dated Oct. 19, while Reuters reported $103.09 on Oct. 18 and again on Oct. 19.
Reuters attributed the WTI rise to a substantial U.S. inventory draw and intensifying attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Its inventory report put the decline at 8.6 million barrels for the week ended October 9; CNBC described an 8 million-barrel draw for that week. Separately, Reuters reported that the Trump administration’s Oct. 18 executive order eased certain sanctions and tariffs affecting Russian energy exports.
The $100 contract resolves yes if ICE WTI crude futures for the active month, as published by Pyth, touch $100 or higher during any October 2026 trading session. Reported WTI prices alone do not establish that this specified reference has met the condition.
The next EIA release is scheduled for Oct. 21, 2026.
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Sources: As reported by Reuters and CNBC.
Market data: Polymarket, midpoint of the best bid and ask as of 6:16 p.m. UTC on Oct. 19, 2026.
_Prediction market prices reflect the collective estimates of traders, not certainties. This is not financial or betting advice._
This article was created with the assistance of AI and is monitored by our editorial team.
