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A federal judge is weighing a challenge to a criminal prosecution over Polymarket bets tied to Nicolás Maduro’s capture, with a trial scheduled for early December. According to POLITICO’s Oct. 20 report, U.S. District Judge Margaret Garnett is expected to decide in the coming weeks whether the case against U.S. Army soldier Gannon Van Dyke proceeds to trial.
The dispute centers on whether a prediction-market bet qualifies as a “swap” under the Commodity Exchange Act. Lawyers following the case say the answer could influence future prediction-market prosecutions.
Defense challenges application of the Commodity Exchange Act
Prosecutors allege Van Dyke used confidential information about the capture of then-Venezuelan leader Maduro to place bets on the rendition through Polymarket. They say he placed $33,034 in bets and received a total payout of more than $400,000.
Van Dyke’s lawyers argue that a prediction-market bet is not a swap and therefore cannot be prosecuted under the Commodity Exchange Act.
POLITICO reported that Garnett appeared likely during oral arguments to allow the case to move forward. That assessment is not a ruling, and the allegations remain unproven.
Ruling could influence other prediction-market cases
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is also pursuing a parallel civil case against Van Dyke. Separately, the agency has proposed a legal distinction between prediction markets and casino gambling or sportsbooks, while states and the CFTC are fighting over regulatory authority.
Those broader regulatory questions remain unresolved. The immediate issue in Van Dyke’s criminal case is the defense’s challenge to applying the Commodity Exchange Act.
“I do think that people are watching this decision,” Celia Cohen told POLITICO.
Garnett’s upcoming decision will determine whether the case moves toward its scheduled early-December trial; it will not itself establish Van Dyke’s guilt.
More from playwv.com – Prediction market firms push back on CFTC affiliate trading proposal – CFTC settlement bars former White House worker from prediction markets after Kalshi profits – State AGs Challenge CFTC Over Prediction Market Rules and What It Could Mean for Gambling Oversight
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Source: As reported by politico.com.
