Angle and instinct, two significant betting assets, greet the world of sports betting in West Virginia this weekend.
Some interesting values arise on DraftKings Sportsbook for the PGA Memorial, as the return of Tiger Woods brought the resulting Tigermania.
The angle: The gamblers’ love affair with this great athlete hides the value-laden odds for golfers who got hot last week.
The instinct: It might be smart to stay on them.
UFC, which notched a reported 1.3 million buys for its Fight Island debut last week, challenges bettors with lesser-known names for Saturday’s card.
The angle: If you have followed the circuit since the May 9 return, you might decipher some nuance in the DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook prop board ahead of the pack.
The Instinct: Odds will be near even-money on some good plays. That may appeal to a big-money bettor. Otherwise, you might have to stab at a prop.
West Virginia horse racing is available every night at Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races and Mountaineer Park.
The angle: Fields are getting smaller, which helps your chances to win at smaller odds.
The instinct: Reserve some money for those 10-horse fields, where some big payouts originate.
Betting on the PGA: The world beyond Tiger
Opportunity knocks in the Memorial, Thursday through Sunday in Ohio.
Fans are going to overbet Tiger Woods.
The fabled Woods is taking more money than anybody. But he hasn’t played since February and he’s facing top PGA pros who have been appearing nearly every week.
Furthermore, the PGA is uncharacteristically playing on the same Muirfield Village course two weekends in a row. Lesser-known players who got hot last week pay handsomely in the Top 5 and Top 10 spots, including:
- Collin Morikawa
- Gary Woodland
- Viktor Hovland
So does Justin Thomas, who saw victory slip away last week in a playoff, and Bryson DeChambeau, the most consistent player on tour since it returned.
Let’s take a closer look.
WV online sports betting fans are in love with the returning Woods. He has won this tournament five times (but not since 2012) and set the DraftKings board alight like a pinball machine.
Tiger got 21% of the early handle and 15% of the bets, more than any other player.
Woods is +2500, but the bettors are treating him like he’s even money.
Another favorite on the splits was Brooks Koepka. At +2800, he commanded 16% of the handle and 8% of the bets, both second to Woods. Two players with odds of 25-1 or higher are already obtaining the most money.
Gamblers might check the Top 5 and Top 10 lines, where you have a better chance to cash than by trying to nail the winner in this ultra-competitive tour.
- Woodland is +800 for the Top 5 and +400 for the Top 10.
- Hovland is +550 for the Top 5 and +275 for the Top 10 at DraftKings.
Why mention their names? Hovland finished third last week and Woodland was fifth.
These players are not only hot, but they’re playing the course they mastered last week.
There are other enticing possibilities. Thomas, who squandered the lead last week and lost in a playoff, is +950 to win, +250 in the Top 5 and +138 in the Top 10 at Draft Kings.
If anybody should be fired up, it’s Thomas.
DeChambeau is +1050 to win, +275 for Top 5 and +163 for the Top 10.
Check the odds on Morikawa. He’s +2200 to win, +550 for Top 5 and +275 for Top 10.
Want to know what he did last week? He won the whole tournament.
It’s tough to win back-to-back PGA events, but at least he should play well.
Woods appears in his first start since the Genesis Invitational in February, where he struggled and finished 68th. In his only other 2020 start, he finished tied for ninth.
What’s the angle? Mine mirrors what I said about Tyrrell Hatton here two weeks ago. I liked him in the Top 10 at +163 and Top 20 at -120. I bet him in both places and he finished fourth.
Hovland, DeChambeau, Woodland, Hovland and Morikawa are excellent prices, especially in the Top 5 and Top 10 slots. They merit a strong look.
UFC: Always on the radar
The UFC made news July 4 weekend by not having a card. Otherwise, it’s been a betting party every weekend since the UFC’s May 9 return.
Here are the main fights and early odds for Saturday’s card from DraftKings and FanDuel, as of Wednesday.
Deiveson Figueiredo, who is -230 at DraftKings and -220 at FanDuel, battles Joseph Benavidez, +185 at DraftKings and +194 at FanDuel, for the vacant flyweight title.
What you should know:
This is a rematch of an earlier TKO 2 victory for Figueiredo. It was also supposed to be for the flyweight title. Because Figueiredo didn’t make weight that night, the title remained vacant and Benavidez got 30% of Figueiredo’s purse. This is take two.
Figueiredo initially tested positive for COVID-19 before this event. He later tested negative. The rematch won’t be finalized until he takes another test Friday. Prop-wise at FanDuel:
- A Figueiredo KO/TKO is +125
- A KO/TKO by either fighter is +115
Figueiredo ranges from +500 to +1100 in picking the exact knockout round. Benavidez goes from +3100 to +4000.
Kelvin Gastelum, ranging from -118 to -125 at both books, faces Jack Hermansson, +100 at both books in a matchup of ranked fighters. Hermansson is the UFC’s sixth-ranked contender. Gastelum is No. 7.
Marc Diakiese, -155 at DraftKings and -170 at FanDuel, battles Rafael Fiziev, who is +125 at DraftKings and +138 at FanDuel.
Ariane Lipski and Luana Carolina are both -112 at Draft Kings. At FanDuel, Lipski is -118 and Carolina is +100.
Alexandre Pantoja, -200 at both books, faces vs Askar Askarov, +160 at DraftKings and +168 at FanDuel.
What you should know:
Pantoja could be shifted to the main event if there is a problem with Figueiredo’s testing.
Fight Island Debut Strong With Bettors
The UFC Fight Island debut last Saturday brought big business to the sportsbooks. Many sports betting fans cleaned up as a strong majority of the money came in on the main-event loser, Jorge Masvidal. William Hill Sportsbook, for example, took a $200,000 wager on Masvidal, who was decisioned by Kamaru Usman.
Two bettors made nice scores and they don’t have to reside in your state to be appreciated. The method is what’s important.
One went 13-for-13, taking the moneyline on every matchup. The user turned $25 into $11,888.61 at FanDuel.
The sweat: Two bouts were split decisions, but they came through.
And bettors got a bonus. FanDuel issued refunds after the Alexander Volkanovski-Max Holloway co-main won by Volkanovski. FanDuel basically considered the decision a “bad beat” and prompted goodwill with the refunds. They do not affect Volkanovski’s winning wagers.
One DraftKings sports betting customer turned $2.50 into more than $6,000. The gambler nailed a seven-leg parlay with odds of nearly 2500-1.
The key: Scoring two exact methods of victory, a submission for Amanda Ribas over Paige VanZant and a TKO 5 for Petr Yan over Jose Aldo. And then there were the two split-decision wins; besides Volkanovski, Rose Namajunas nipped Jessica Andrade.
That was a lot of fun for the price of a regular coffee. And a lot of return too.
West Virginia horse racing
Hollywood at Charles Town Races and Mountaineer Park race tracks continue operating seven nights a week. The first post is 7 p.m. with Charles Town running Thursday to Saturday, and Mountaineer from Sunday to Wednesday.
The patterns are subtly changing at these tracks.
The big, overflow fields are gone, as the backlog of horses that had not run looks to be emptying out.
Instead of big fields in every race, each card has a couple of them. That gives gamblers a better chance to collect, albeit at smaller prices, in most races. But there are usually some nice surprises that come out of the circuit every week.
Charles Town, on Thursday, had a $2 superfecta worth $31,703.40. That translates to a $1 superfecta of $15,851, and a 10-cent super of $1,585.
This was a 10-horse field of maiden special weights horses. What does that mean?
These horses had never won a race before. Maidens and low-level claimers, races in which horses may have won one race, are fertile grounds for longshots.