For the second straight week, West Virginia bettors have a unique PGA handicapping challenge.
On the heels of the Zurich Classic, which featured rare teams of two, the Mexico Open features something unusual: an absence of top money-winners in its Thursday-Sunday tournament from the Greg Norman-designed course in Vallarta, Mexico.
That puts a spotlight on Jon Rahm, who is favored in practically every tournament he appears in, despite being blanked in the win column since the US Open last year. West Virginia sports bettors have thrived when avoiding him on the win line.
This is one of his shortest price points ever on the DraftKings WV board. Rahm is the clear favorite at +400 to win, +100 for the top five and -200 for the top 10.
A top 10 finish for him is practically unplayable.
Next come Gary Woodland, Cameron Tringale, Abraham Ancer and Kevin Na at +2000. That’s a colossal price for the second position.
They are also +450 to finish in the top five and +210 for the top 10 (Ancer is +225 for the top 10). The prices for anyone to finish in the top 10 besides Rahm might be where the money is for bettors who can find the right player.
Tony Finau is +3000 and Patrick Reed is +4000 in this tournament. Both are capable.
How to watch the PGA Mexico Open
All times Eastern:
- Thursday-Friday: Golf Channel, 3:30-6 p.m.
- Saturday-Sunday: Golf Channel, 1-3 p.m., CBS, 3-6 p.m.
Mexico Open odds at WV sportsbooks
Odds changed late Monday, with Ancer moving up and Daniel Berger moving out. Berger was at +900, a second solid choice to Rahm until he suddenly withdrew from the tournament with no reason cited. That moved others up.
Most of the top money-winners are not here. No Scottie Scheffler and his four-tournament-victory, $10-million plus portfolio at the top of the money board. No Cam Smith, who has $6.6 million in earnings and two tournament victories this year.
Forget Sam Burns, Hideki Matsuyama and Patrick Cantlay, rounding out the top five. Forget the top 10, top 15 and top 20.
Rahm stands 28th, with no wins this year, and he’s the big chalk.
That is one index to monitor the field.
Another is the world rankings, which average how well each golfer finishes in every tournament. This indicates that someone who does not play in many tournaments may still be a short price.
Rahm is third on that list. He is always near the top of the pack and is subsequently bet on too much each week. Will that change this time?
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If Rahm does not tower above the field, this tournament will swing wide open, laced with value.
Some bettors will target Tringale, a threat to finish near the top of the leaderboard this week. He has finished 12th or better in his last two starts because of strong iron play.
Some gamblers also will look at Ancer. He was raised in Reynosa, Mexico, and will be perceived as being comfortable with the course in his home country.
Ancer is also the 18th-ranked player. Some gamblers will consider him to be in a perfect, overlooked position.
Additional PGA betting options
Another way to play is to create your own mini-tournament. DraftKings WV Sportsbook has several five-player matchups here. That’s unique, as this category often has three.
But with the more difficult win probability comes increased betting odds.
Here is one sample, picking the best score among these five players:
- Sebastian Munoz +275
- Finau +300
- Ancer +300
- Chris Kirk +350
- Aaron Wise +350
The classic three-ball version of this format also is up, illustrating the point about the price being indexed to win probability.
Here’s one example: Ancer and Finau are both +165. Kirk is +190. Pick the winner in that group and you cash a ticket.
Bettors can place a few enticing wagers under this format, with any group of three or five players. Gamblers can also view this type of wager as their main bet.
Rather than battle a field of more than 100 players each week, some players will prefer a larger bet at a shorter price in a small group.
Finding some wrinkles at BetMGM
Ancer is getting more love here; however, he’s up to +1600. This is not where gamblers would go to back him, given the DraftKings odds.
But BetMGM WV Sportsbook has big advantages on some other players.
For Rahm backers, that means +450, a better return, especially for a big wager at BetMGM.
There also is value with Woodland at +2200, as well as Tringale and Na at +2800. This is what makes golf appetizing for bettors at the sportsbook.
This sport presents the best opportunity to find significant disparities between how different books evaluate the betting odds.
A $100 wager on Tringale or Na pays $800 more at BetMGM than wherever it is +2000.
