How do bettors navigate utopia?
This question concerns the entire West Virginia online gambling crowd, especially NFL backers, now that legal sports betting has surpassed the promise of merely placing a sports betting app in the palm of your hand. This glorious new betting age provides a sophisticated menu of odds boosts, alternate lines, promos, yardage props and in-game predictions that prompt action on every single play.
Sports betting has become a 24-hour, seven-day, multi-billion-dollar party. Three years ago, you needed “a guy” to bet anything, and it was illegal. Now you can legally gamble on everything, including sports and props one never imagined.
How do sports betting customers maintain focus? By hitting enough bets to stick around. Let’s examine some tips in a never-ending Bettors’ Playbook.
- The spread is only an intro. While it remains a game’s public identification, there are numerous additional betting avenues. Yardage props apply to quarterbacks, running backs and receivers. There are points by quarters, by halves and head-to-head props between two players. There are score-and-win props in which you select a player to tally a touchdown in the team’s winning effort. These bets should be bet just as strongly as the spread line to someone who has researched them.
- Compile free bets. They accompany many wagers at various sportsbooks. Whenever freebies need to be used, either within one week or later on, they improve your overall chance to win. A free bet may entice a bettor to play a long shot that otherwise would not have been wagered. A win at that wager could spike the bankroll and let a player take a few more chances.
- Account for the “vig.” That’s the 10% you ante up for the privilege of playing on many of your bets. If you figure that most people hit 45%-55% of their wagers, the vig hurts. Free bets and promos that waive the vig help balance the equation.
- If you accept that the normal range of correct selections is 45%-55%, you’ll see that not all bets are created equal. You will need to play some games much more heavily. Regarding the NFL, watch certain teams long enough, whether that’s assessing their play-calling in the red zone or their coaching in the final two minutes, and you’ll get a feel about when to “load up” on a game.
- A helpful tip in this area is scouring the projected win totals for the teams before the season starts (roughly half the teams win between seven and nine games). If a team is flying too high over its projections, a drop down could be due. The same goes for an underachieving team.
- Injuries. Many quarterbacks are worth three points to the betting line if they get hurt. Some notable exceptions are Aaron Rodgers, who is worth in the vicinity of nine. The same goes for Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs and reigning MVP Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens.
- Are you thinking in-game? Best timing to play a team is usually when it’s on defense, because the betting odds reflect its vulnerability to giving up a score. But if that team makes a defensive stop, the numbers change dramatically. A team can go from being an underdog to a favorite, in a heartbeat. Taking a team right after it goes on defense and hoping for a stop gives you a good chance for in-game value.
- But that changes with elite teams. The San Francisco 49ers fell behind the Arizona Cardinals 16-0 in the second quarter of a late-season game last year. That should have been the time to go Niners for an in-game bet, but you could not. They were still favored. The Niners went on to win 36-26.
- Where has big money been won? Major collections have come from multiple team parlays featuring prohibitive favorites of -200 to -300, coupled with a few alternate lines and a mountain of sweat. Gamblers know the sportsbooks will pay them and thus make their share of multi-legged parlay bets for big money. The idea is great for a Hollywood script, not applicable for the average player. But the concept can be applied on a smaller scale.
- Bad beats. They happen. The Atlanta Falcons scored two touchdowns in the last five seconds, yes five, to turn an under into an over and cause a change in thousands of dollars in one game last year. The same holds true for a Philadelphia Eagles scoop and score against the Washington Redskins (now Washington Football Team) to win 37-27 on the last play. The Eagles trailed with 35 seconds to go, and they ended up covering six points. Agony for the Washington bettor. The breaks supposedly even out, but most gamblers believe they do not for them.
Honorable mention. Hidden values. You can pick margins of victories in all games. A big price jump comes from winning by seven points to winning by 14. The blowout happens now and then. If you are on it when that happens, it will pay well.
- Technology to the rescue. You can start to make a multi-team parlay on your app. But before you pull the trigger, you can see the price and the projected payoff. This is a big edge over being in a brick-and-mortar sportsbook. There, you’d have to ask a teller to run those numbers, which you wouldn’t do if a line of bettors had formed behind you. Here, you can.
- Set up a budget for a calendar year or particular season. If you heard Kim Yuhl on her recent Teach Me to Sports Bet video, she’s considering a $500 stash for the entire NFL season. That’s 17 weeks or about $30 per week. That won’t be exact, but it will indicate some weeks can produce a lighter volume to keep pace.
- You might want to bet light to start this year in the NFL anyway because there was no preseason. We have no idea about the timing between quarterbacks and receivers, along with the physical shape of defensive linemen.
- Know what teams you are “on” and “off” with and play accordingly. Some teams you just nail. Others you can’t. It will vary year to year.
- Allow for both the fun and the discipline of gambling. You can assign most of the budget to games you love and a small percentage for the “giddiness,” bets that reflect where the real fun is. Think of the craps player who bets $2 on the hi-lo and must throw a two or 12 on the next roll. It returns 29-1, and that’s why the player took the shot. You may even figure that some of your friends may call you up, suggesting you go in on a crazy bet together. Have a little money set aside for it. Have a little for some “sudden revelations,” too. You might see something right in the middle of a game that makes sense for an in-game bet or a parlay.
- Monitor the adrenaline rush. When you begin making many bets quickly, you may not be thinking them through.
Nobody can guarantee you victory, but this idea will keep you out of trouble.
The old-school approach is unconventional in the app era, but it works.
Divide your season stash into thirds, or halves. Fund what you play with cash. Play only that. If you get low on funds, bring more cash to a PayNearMe outlet or the sportsbook property itself, depending on where you live.
This is good insurance against impulsive betting.
Many gamblers have their apps connected with checking accounts. When the funds are low and they get restless, the players might access the funds instantly. This often occurs late at night when someone simply wants action. A player may lose funds he/she had not even planned on playing.
We’ve seen this principle at brick-and-mortar establishments, too. A player makes $200 last for three hours, decides he doesn’t want to go home and access more funds. He then loses $200 more in 20 minutes.
So take the pause, bring your money to an outlet sometime later and refuel your account. This will prevent gambling at the point of weakness.
It’s natural that the thrill of gambling will lead to an adrenaline rush, but if that rush happens when you are losing, stop.
The other preventative measure is to view your sports-betting budget as a season. Determine what the length of your “season” will be. If you run out of funds, your “season” is over, but there’s no need to despair. There will be another one soon.
In this regard, you resemble a sports team. If the “season” is over, you regroup and try again later, maybe in a few weeks. This prevents one from chasing losses and digging a financial hole. It keeps you from having to stop playing for an extended period of time.
That’s what you want to avoid. Gambling is fun and it’s a privilege. Knowing the teams and the bets are one thing. Knowing yourself is even more important. It will keep you at this wonderful new-age sports-betting party.