Mountain State bettors can embrace a dual strategy to place their Super Bowl 55 wagers on the Feb. 7 game. They can wait for the spread to tilt slightly in their favor to make the first round of bets. They can also wait for the props and entertaining novelty bets to round out the wagering menu.
The line barely moved in the first few days after being posted, as the Kansas City Chiefs are favored by a field goal or slightly higher versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The over-under in the range of 56-57 points may not move too much either, unless there’s an announcement of a key injury or weather concerns.
“The way you bet this is that if you feel this number is going to be Kansas City -3.5 or -4, you bet it now as a Tampa Bay backer,” Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told Play WV. “If you think it gets back to 3 and you are a Kansas City bettor, you make the bet later.”
Super Bowl 55 betting tips
Besides the spread and the over-under, bettors can savor a potpourri of bets “in the thousands,” Avello said. And the wagering momentum will snowball. We will review a sample of them in the next betting preview. For the Super Bowl, they may account for 40% of the betting options. Some are comical and entertaining, but all are well thought out.
“Each day, you see the betting get a little bit more and then a little bit more,” Avello said. “By the weekend of the game, there will be continuous action.
“It’s a great betting event, because not only do you have the gamblers who have been following the team all year, but also the people who haven’t placed a single wager all season and they are going to make bets now.”
Some tips on navigating the landscape:
- Allocate your budget between the line, the gimmicks and props that pay well. Decide where your comfort zone is. Play out the potential game result in your head first, and then go find the bets that fit. This will help you from feeling overwhelmed by the plethora of betting choices.
- High-level targets like wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs are viable wagers for “anytime scorers.” If you want them to score first, the window is limited, but they often pay in the neighborhood of 6-1. Hill is invariably targeted deep early in games. He scored on a deep, early ball against Tampa Bay in Kansas City’s 27-24 triumph in November. Hill scored three touchdowns in the game.
- Watch for odds boosts on your favorite players. Mike Evans of Tampa Bay was part of a FanDuel promotion that boosted him to +470 last week as a first-TD scorer. He pulled it off against the Green Bay Packers, and FanDuel customers received more than $1.8 million.
- You can make a lot with a little if a few developments break right. One FanDuel customer turned $10 into $4,207 by having a six-team parlay of anytime scorers in the conference championship games.
They included:
- Evans +138
- Leonard Fournette +138
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling +285
- Robert Tonyan +153
- Cameron Brate +396
- Davante Adams -187
Yes, that was six touchdown scorers. The genius decision was selecting Brate, a backup tight end, and escaping any TDs by the Green Bay running game. In fact, two tight ends scored in this game, and none were named Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay’s high-profile receiver. Payout well deserved.
There were seven touchdowns scored in the game. This ticket had six. But it’s still a long-shot play.
- Promos should come at you in the second week. The options for new users do not always entice established patrons, as the books view major events like these as recruitment tools. But there are always some price hikes, vig eliminations or specials that will be worth considering for established players.
- Can’t decide on which props make the most sense? Hey, the coin flip is -103 on both sides. You have a fair chance to hit that, with no handicapping. You can even bet whether the game totals end in odd or even numbers.
- The props will roll out day by day, too. We will evaluate some of the most creative here in the second Super Bowl preview next week.
- Go against the grain. There is usually a surprise touchdown scorer somewhere in post-season games. It can be a backup tight end or running back.
- Embrace in-game betting. This is especially helpful regarding over-under totals. How quickly do the teams get to the line of scrimmage? Do they take a long time between plays or install the no-huddle offense? A deliberate team can shave three or four minutes off a contest just by using all of the game clock.
Examining the Chiefs-Bucs matchup
Observations about the game:
- This is the first time a team has played in its own stadium in Super Bowl history. Ironically, Tampa Bay gained the home-field appearance by winning three road games in succession, at Washington, at New Orleans and at Green Bay. The Bucs knocked off the second and first seed on successive weekends.
Avello estimated the home-field edge at one point for Tampa Bay versus the customary three, because of reduced crowd size.
- Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady has played exceptionally well in the team’s seven-game winning streak. His offensive line has done a magnificent job protecting him, and his accuracy on deep balls has been extraordinary.
- The last time Tampa Bay lost a game was on this field, to Kansas City, 27-24, in late November. The Bucs have won seven in a row.
- The Chiefs bring a decisive element of team speed. Hill can fly as a deep, downfield threat, and Mecole Hardman ripped off a gain on an end-around against the Bills. Hill and Hardman are perhaps the two fastest players on the field.
- Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs and Brady of the Bucs are the last two quarterbacks to lead their teams to Super Bowl victories. When is the last time the winning quarterbacks from the last two Super Bowls met for the championship? Believe it or not, never.
- Irony personified: Mahomes is trying to lead the Chiefs to back-to-back championships. That hasn’t happened since the New England Patriots accomplished the feat in 2005. Who quarterbacked the Patriots then? Brady.
Enjoy the buildup for the Super Bowl. There is nothing like it.
